Wednesday 30 March 2011

Anatomy of a Short Sale

I had just completed reading William O'Neil's book- "How to make money selling stocks short". Its a wonderfully written book whereby the author explained the psychology behind making short selling sales.

In the book, O'Neill explained and showed readers the correct point of sale for short selling and explained that what is obvious in the stock market often does not work. For example, the initial break-down of stocks on high volume might not be the best instances to initiate your short-selling positions. The area which all short-sellers congregate would created a floor for the stocks and would help bounce up the prices instead. The secret is to wait for the first wave of early shorts to be run in (stopped out) and to wait for the bull bargain hunters to step in before re-initiating the short selling positions.

I searched the Internet and found that someone had actually did up a slide of an anatomy of short selling which is kind of the same as what was found in William O'Neill's book. This model (click on chart to enlarge) would be extremely useful for all of us. Here you go:


Perhaps you should use this model to look up stocks that are having traits which are exhibiting this type of "behaviours".

What to do when your stocks are not reacting as you think it should be?

I am sure many of us here had experienced times whereby your trades did not react accordingly to what you expect them to do. For example, the short selling trades which you expect to go down did not move down and the long trades which you made do not react strongly as what you would expect it to.

What can you as a trader do then? Listed below are two responses which i think is viable to take.

- Cut away your positions immediately without it even touching your stops.

- If you think that you have trouble cutting away all your positions in one go, i will recommend that you reduce your positions proportionally. For example; reduce 1/3 of position first. Take this first step and you will find that you will be able to subsequently reduce all your positions. Try it out the next time your trades do not react the way you expect them to.

You'll be surprised. Trust me.

Monday 28 March 2011

My current trades (2)

Just shorted LVS at average of $43.62, at slightly just above Kjiun line of the Ichimoko Clouds.
Stop loss will be placed at just above high of prior day's high.
This is a relief rally to me. Investors/traders who can't get out in time during the high volume drop at first day of March 2011 would be itching to sell their holdings at this level. I kinda like attempt to fade the rally.
OF COS, hindsight is always 20/20. I will know if i am correct as time unfolds itself.

I had covered the LVS trade here last week (click here for elaborated explanation).


My current trades

I had bought ZSL (click on chart below to enlarge) on Friday (25 Mar 2011) at an average price of $23.60. I almost always average into my position as i understand that i will be too early during my entries at times. ZSL is a short silver ETF therefore ZSL will goes inverse to price action of Silver (SLV). I had covered the Silver trade here (click to see page).

ZSL had closed with a piercing bottom candlestick pattern on Thurs (24 Mar) on huge volume which jumped out like an eye-sore to all chartists. I immediately initiated a position the very next day.




First target: $26.
Second target: $30

Do note that we are looking at daily time frame and thus the holding period would be a few days to weeks.

I will also be looking at shorting LVS this week!

.

Sunday 27 March 2011

Las Vegas Sands - Possible Climax Top

It is a high possibility that we have already seen the climax top in November  2010 for Las Vegas Sands (LVS) for the mid-term. The stock is now rallying back to its 50MA area on high volume but its closing on Friday was on narrow price range. This has caught my attention and it is definitely a good probability for a low risk short-selling entry at around its resistance area.  (Click on chart to enlarge)




This stock is a good for a short-selling trade on my list now!!  Looking forward to next week!!

Cutting losses - Important Risk Management Tool

As stock traders, we have to always remember and keep in mind that trading common stocks are speculative and substantial risks are involved at any one time. We have to be willing to take many small losses to avoid the possibility of sustaining bigger losses and thus losing our entire stake.

Insurance premium

Many people i know are not willing to take losses as they are often stopped out before their stocks took off to greater highs. They are conditioned into thinking that taking losses would prevent them from making big bucks. However, the opposite is the truth. Consider taking small losses as your fire insurance premium against potential huge irreversible catastrophic losses. As the famous stock operator, Bernard Baruch always said:

"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right three or four times out of ten should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly where he has been wrong."

Think about it, my friends.

Saturday 26 March 2011

Global Markets Rallied For Past One Week: Relief Rally Or Not ???

Although the global indexes have rallied big time from a steep drop earlier this month, i remained bearish and wondered if these rally could have been huge relief rally towards the significant moving average resistance of 50MA and 200MA. Relief rally occurs when market action plunged hard and short-sellers covered their shorts by buying back the stocks causing the stock price to move upwards. Bargain hunters are known to join in the fray as well in creating these relief rally.

The Straits Times Index has a huge potential Death Cross (click for interpretation) forming soon if it fails to break resistance. Basically, the death cross is a crossing of the short-term 50MA and long term 200MA. Short term 50MA turning downwards in rising markets are potential bearish tell-tale signs of directions of markets as the 50MA act as strong resistance.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Today i will work on my bearish bias and try to explain and anticipate the crucial resistance for the stock indexes accordingly to my personal interpretation of the charts.

Nasdaq Composite (click on chart to enlarge):


Dow Jones Index (click on chart to enlarge):


S&P500 (click on chart to enlarge):


London Financial Times (click on chart to enlarge):


Hang Seng Index (click on chart to enlarge):


Straits Times Index (click on chart to enlarge): With a potential Death Cross






Friday 25 March 2011

High Probability trade for 25 March 2011

Here is the iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Silver made an all time-high of $38 on Thursday, 24 March 2011.

The daily candlestick pattern formed at the end of the day was a bearish dark cloud cover pattern with huge volume. I will look to short Silver via the short silver ETF (ZSL). This is a simple trade. Determine your stop loss which will be at the high of the day and then average in to your stop loss point. Late bulls will attempt to push the price action close to the all-time high which is why i will average into my stop loss price.



Thursday 24 March 2011

Updates - STI 24 March 2011


Updates for 24 March 2011 - Line line of Resistance

A picture (chart) is worth a thousand words.



The financial sector sectors are leading the charge downward. My current bias is still bearish as i think that the financial sector needs to wake up in order to lead the DOW Jones index higher. All that would change if Dow breaks the red resistance line drawn on above chart.




Tuesday 22 March 2011

Low Risk Trading Ideas for 22 March 2011

Alcoa (AA) - Stock price just hitting 50dayMA at 9.40am New York time.


Dow Jones & Financial Sector updates (22 March 2011)

Dow made a huge run of 178pts back to resistance at break-even point of pre-quake level yesterday. A push towards to the blue spot would see many short-sellers covering their positions. This would probably trigger a spike up of the Dow Jones index.

One point to note was that the financial sector failed to rally and thus did not follow-through with this 178pts gain. We will do an analysis of the financial sector on this page as well.




Citigroup (C) made an announcement that the company would do a 10-1 reverse split of their shares. The market react badly to the news as a reverse split of the shares would screw the value of current shareholders. A reverse split is often seen as a cosmetic enhancements made to the value of the company without any changes to the market cap of the company. At its current closing price of $4.43, Citi's stock price after its 10-1 reverse split would be at $44.30. Citi dropped on huge volume after initially testing the Kijun line of the Ichimoko Clouds system. Citi would be a good buy for me after its share price stablises after its reverse split.






Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both are currently in the midst of forming a bearish triangle and in range trading mode. If the stock price made a move up or down the triangle on huge volume hitting either the blue or red circle level, then it would be the signal for traders to make a move towards the intended direction of teh breakout.







 

Sunday 20 March 2011

Apple Inc (AAPL) - "As the leader goes, so goes the entire market"

The second greatest company in the world - Apple Inc (AAPL) recently launched the sale of its Ipod2. Ipod2 were reportedly selling like hotcakes. However, Apple's share price is currently  breaking down from its all time high of $360. Investors looking to invest more money into the market should take note. The market operates on a forward looking paradigm and the charts are indicating short-term weakness at this moment.

See chart indicated below. The price action had broke down from its 50day MA, which indicates that long term trend traders had probably exited their position. These traders will re-initiate their positions when price action returns above the 50day MA.





How to trade this setup?


Apple is a short-selling opportunity at current levels with a stop loss at the blue spot. Any close at the blue spot would indicate a sigh of strength. Use correct position sizing to initiate the trade. It is also a short if Apple retest the 50day MA resistance and failed to break through it.

As the famous stock market trader  Jesse Livermore once said: "As the leader goes, so goes the entire market"

Saturday 19 March 2011

Weekend Updates: Dow Jones & S&P 500

I have identified the resistance area for Dow Jones Index as indicated on the chart. At this moment, the Dow looks to be testing the support turned resistance area at 12000pts which it fell through earlier this week. If it failed to clear this resistance area, look for the Dow Jones index to drop.




Same goes for the S&P500 chart: The S&P500 had closed with a long tail candlestick which signal that it is already at a potential area of resistance where more selling took place than buying. Look at its doji like candlestick close on friday.



How do trade this setup?

I bought the SPXU (Proshares UltraPro Short S&P500 ETF) on Friday. This ETF tracks the movement of the S&P500. If the index drops, the price of this ETF will rise in value. I ideitified this trade as a low risk trade as i figured that the big drop sustained by the financial market would trigger a wave of selling and this is just the beginning of the move. I am wrong when my stop loss placed at the blue spot is triggered. I am very bearish on the market at this moment and believe that we should sell into the rally as it nears the resistance level.





Famous quote by Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest trader ever lived in Wall Street history. His teachings are valid till even now. Today we take a look at one of his famous quotes.

Jesse Livermore was primarily a trend trader. A trend trader allows the stock price to fluctuate while the stock price makes its way up or down the intended trend. Trend traders are not able to catch the top 20% or bottom 20% of the stock price but only the meat of the move. This trading style also requires patience and excellent emotional control.

Livermore’s biography was captured in Edwin Lefèvre’s book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. This book was first published in 1923 and is still a hot seller on our bookstores in our era. It is a "must have" book for all aspiring traders. My mentor in stock trading gave me his copy of the book a few years back.

Well, as Livermore said: "Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes."



            There is this very famous liner by Livermore which has a huge impact on me:

            It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

            Of course, now is not the time to be a bull for me as my personal interpretation of the charts is that we are currently at the start of a downtrend. I am bearish on the market. Nonetheless, this liner can also be applied to short-selling trades as well.

            Here are the extracts from Edwin Lefèvre’s book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

"In Fullerton’s there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips that is, he never asked the talkers what they’d heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn’t donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap’s answer was always the same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: “What do you think I ought to do?”

Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull market!”

Time and again I heard him say, “Well, this is a bull market, you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning. One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk.

Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning’s story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
“Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!” said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of
Elmer to think of the old chap. “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.

Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary’s face Elmer went on: “I have just sold every share I owned!”

From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, “No! No! I can’t do that!”
“What?” yelled Elmer
“I simply can’t!” said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
“Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”
“You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But ”
“Hold on! Let me talk! And didn’t that stock go op seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”
“It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”

“You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.
“No, I couldn’t.”
“Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer.
“Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

“That’s all right,” said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”

“My dear boy,” said old Partridge, in great distress “my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get
sympathy: “Can you beat it?” he asked me in a stage whisper. “I ask you!” I didn’t say anything. So he went on: “I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He’s got seven points’ profit and I advise him to get out and buy ‘em back on the reaction that’s overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He  says that if he sells he’ll lose his job. What do you know about that?”

“I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn’t say I’d lose my job,” cut in old Turkey. “I said I’d lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.” And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. 

I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do.

That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight."





Thursday 17 March 2011

Trades for today

Short-sell SOLR right at the top of the Ichimoko Cloud resistance with a stop loss at the blue spot indicated in chart below.




Bought ERY today. ERY is an energy bear ETF which will rise in price when energy shares drop.



Wednesday 16 March 2011

Which stage is your stock at now?

In each time frame (5min, 15min, 30min, 1hr, daily or weekly chart), the stock will be in one of the following 4 stages:

Stage 1 (Accumulation phase) : Stocks is under accumulation by the big players and fund managers who are able to move the market with their millions/billions.

Stage 2 (Mark-up phase) : Stocks prices are being pushed up as buyers comes in to support the prices and are willing to pay higher prices for the stock.

Stage 3 (Distribution phase) : Latecomers rush in to buy the stock at these high prices while traders who had bought earlier are not selling their stocks to the latecomers.

Stage 4 (Mark-down phase) : There are no more buyers after the latecomers arrived at the distribution stage and all that are left are all sellers as the stock price begins its decline. The whole cycle then repeats itself again from stage 1.

 Now Let's take a look at Las Vagas Sands daily chart:




If we compare the above chart with the Dow Jones Index (see chart below). Which stage do you think we are at now?






Bulls vs Bears - Who will win? Dow Jones Index, S&P500 and STI

Dow Jones Index closed down -137pts today on high volume although it tried to recover from a near 300 points drop early on in trading. It needs to close at the blue spot indicated in the chart below in order to show it has strength and that the risk on rally is back on. The huge drop triggered a lot of bear technical indicators and its going to be a technical market from here on. At this moment, the path of the least resistance is down. The next support for the DOW is at 11600pts. Traders/Investors should take this opportunity to sell into strength until proven otherwise. Do not fight the tape. I remain a bear unless the Dow Jones Index closed at somewhere at the blue spot ! One should not go long at this moment.



Here is a chart of the S&P500. It has a hammer candlestick. As we all know, a hammer candlestick pattern means a reversal of some sorts. The hammer will not be valid if its low is violated. I will be going long if S&P500 closed above the blue spot. At this moment i remain a bear seller.


I have a post on the Straits Times Index last week. It remains very weak as it closed down huge on Tuesday. It was down -79pts. We should look for it to recover slight on Wednesday trading. Investors should look to sell into strength if STI failed to closed above the blue spot indicated in below chart. I will be a buyer on at that level.



Saturday 12 March 2011

Weekend updates (3): How i will trade for 3rd week of March 2011

Am i seeing things? Is this an inverted Head & Shoulder pattern? FAZ is a short banks ETF. If this is really an inverted Head & Shoulder pattern, then we can expect banks to drop next week. Having an inverted H&S pattern doesn't mean that it cannot be a failure as well. Patterns can fail. In the stock market, nothing is cast in concrete. Anything can happen. The inverted H&S pattern is considered a failure when the stop loss is hit.


AA has a H&S pattern.I have a post on it a few days back. Currently, AA seemed to be retesting the resistance. If the resistance hold, we should see AA moving down from here.


I am waiting for SOLR to rebound from its sell-off. If it really comes up to this level, it will be a short selling setup for me as indicated by the Ichimoko Clouds system.






Weekend updates (2): How i will trade for 3rd week of March 2011

The Nasdaq Composite had experienced 2 gap down since mid-Feb 2011. Can you spot the 2 gaps?
Unfilled gaps are often trend killers so we can have reasons to believe that we are seeing a short term top here. If that is really the case, then we could be sitting on top of a gold mine now for short sellers.


I like to trade TYP (bear ETF) when it comes to shorting the Nasdaq Composite.

How to trade this setup? Buy at current levels with stop loss at blue spots (tight or loose) indicated on chart below. First possible target $24 region.



Weekend updates: How i will trade for 3rd week of March 2011

The Dow Jones Index broke down this week and is now at its 50day MA. It has to close above 12200pts in order to prove it has strength.


How to trade this set-up? See DDM (bull ETF) which tracks the Dow Jones Index. It is a short at current levels accordingly to the Ichimoko Cloud system as the blue tenkan line has already cut the red Kijun line giving a weak sell signal as the price actions are still on top of the clouds.

For my style of trading, i will first determine my stop loss point which will be placed at the blue spot on chart below. Both stop loss price are my recommended spot to place your stop loss depending on whether you want a tight or loose stop.

How to enter your trade? For me, if i want to short sell 1000 shares of DDM, i will always average into my position while taking reference from my stop loss point as i may sometimes be too early or late to a trade. E.g. I may short 400 shares at current level, and then short 300 shares more a higher price WITHOUT violating my stop loss point. And if the price action is moving down, i am equally comfortable in shorting the remaining 300 shares at a lower price. In this way, i can build up my short position for this trade as i believe that we are at a short term top at current levels. Notice the high volume on the big red breakdown from the triangle.


How to exit? For traders hitting for target to ext, $55 looks like a reasonable target. Ichimoko trading system do not have a target exit price, instead its depend on the tenkan or kijun line for your exit, which may give back more profits as it is a trend trading system. Trend trading system will only attempt to catch the meat of the move which means giving back the bottom and top 20% or 80% of the move.

Thursday 10 March 2011

DOW Jones at 10.25am NY time 10 Mar 2011

Dow Jones broke down from a symmetrical consolidating pattern and is currently down -186 pts at 10.25am NY time on 10 Mar 2011. It is currently testing support at 50day MA and would have to hold this level or else it could possibly be the start of a correction. Short sellers are already pouncing on this breakout trade.

Important note: As we are using a daily chart, we have to wait till the end of the day when trading ends and the candlestick completes its day candlestick pattern. A close below the 50MA could see more sellers for the next trading day.

I am betting on the market to drop. Just hoping that its not a bear trap where price U-turn and move higher, trapping the short sellers as a result. A flexible mindset has to be adopted so that one can go with the flow of the market. Having bias thoughts would kill us.



Analysis of the Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)

The STI fell out of a symmetrical triangle in mid Feb 2011.
It is currently facing stiff resistance at the area which is circled on the chart below.
As of today, it stalled at the first resistance (R1) area. If it can generate enough strength to move past R1, the second resistance area will be at the 50day MA at 3154pts. STI has to closed above the 50day MA in order to show that it can continue its uptrend.



Here's what is happening in the circled area: Investors who can't sell in time and had to hold their losses during the sell-off in first week of Feb 2011 would be scared stiff as they see their stock value plunged and will be anxious to sell off their current holdings when it comes back up to the circle area. IF there are NO buyers, this would cause another wave of sell-off as investors moved back into cash positions. If the first resistance (R1) area failed to be breached and the STI failed to hold the 200day MA, then we would expect the STI to drop to test its low at 2950 support area. A break of this level would set another wave of sell-off.

NOTE: A stockchart is not a crystal ball but it can allow a technician to look at the price action at the support and resistance area. Stock prices have the tendency to move to these support and resistance area to "test" if its firm before moving off in its desired direction. Technician are not able to determine the duration which the stock takes to reach the desired support/resistance area.

This is the beauty of the stock market, it is always a game of probability and always will be!



Mohawk Industries, Inc (MHK)

From the perspective of an Ichimoko trader, the upper resistance line served as a huge resistance to this stock. This pattern is looking increasingly like a descending triangle of sorts although this pattern looks a bit neither here nor there on second thoughts. Nonetheless, we cannot get away from the fact that this stock looks like it is stuck it a trading range.

I would go short from here and place a trade somewhere near the $58.50 - $59 level with a tight stop loss at the blue spot indicated in the chart below. The entry at this level would be a low risk entry as one stands to lose at least $0.50 but could net the trader a $4 to $6 profit if it turns out right. First target price would be $55 and should this price level fails to hold (looking at the thin Ichimoko Cloud support), we could even see $53!




MGM Resorts International (MGM)

MGM is turning out to be a technician's dream with its almost perfect symmetrical triangle.
Given the current general market sentiment, the bias is to the downside at this moment.

MGM currently has support at the $13.50 support. This support is very significant as it was once resistance before the stock surged to its high of $17 in Jan 2011. See how the price action tested the $13.50 area at pt A, B and C before eventually breaking through its resistance. The more times the price action tested the resistance line, the more reliable it becomes. Technically speaking, this is a really import price area which we should watch out for.

Having said that, a break below to the blue spot would signal a strong sell especially since the price action is currently residing below the Ichimoko Clouds. Should MGM break lower, it should see support at the $12 - $12.50 level where the 200day MA is located (see circle). A break below the 200MA could see MGM testing $11.

However, let's not look so far ahead and concentrate on the probable short term movement of this stock. This short selling trade has the potential to net the short seller a $1 profit. I will be placing a "short sell" stop at the blue spot on the below chart. The stop would be triggered immediately once the price action plunged past the area. Another reason why this blue spot is so significant is because traders who are long based on this pattern would place their stop loss at the level of the blue spot. A pierce through of this area would trigger many stops along the way.



Wednesday 9 March 2011

Analysis of Aluminium Sectors

We now look at 2 of the stocks in the aluminum sector - CENX (Century Aluminum) and AA (Alcoa).

AA is one of the 30 component stocks on the Dow Jones index. At first glance, AA looks like it is exhibiting some form of topping patterns. A probable Head and Shoulder (H&S) pattern looks to be forming on its daily chart over 3months. AA is definitely a candidate for short selling on a break below the $15.50 neckline. The Kijun line of the Ichimoko Cloud is also acting as a resistance at $16.82.

Note that any break upwards and out of the triangle would render the probable H&S pattern a failure.



CENX has a symmetrical triangle pattern on its daily chart and is definitely a short on my books if it breaks downward and touches the SELL region. My bias is towards the bearish side for the aluminum sector at this moment.

Do note that the Ichimoko clouds looks kinda thin which translates to "thin support".

The aggressive trader can choose to short CENX with a stop to cover at just above the upper range of the triangle. 




Analysis of Bank of America (BAC) stockchart

Bank of America (BAC) rallied almost 5% on Tues, 8 March 2011. It is almost touching its near term resistance at $14.70 as depicted in the chart below. BAC is currently in a consolidating symmetrical triangle pattern. A break above the triangle at the blue circle region on strong volume would signal a momentum buy. Note the huge volume on Tues. Can BAC break its resistance?

For the ichimoko trader, do note that BAC is nearing its support just above the cloud. A break below its cloud support could see BAC testing the 200day MA. A break below the 200 MA could see BAC touching $13. A change in cloud colour from green to red would signal a change in sentiment.

An aggressive trader could short BAC for a few cents profit at its current resistance with a tight stop loss placed just above the resistance (upper line of triangle).



What is the Dow attempting to do?


The Dow Jones Index rallied 124pts on Tues, 8 March 2011. Market actions for the past 2 weeks has been choppy. If you are being whipsawed, you ought to stop trading and stay in cash position.
The Dow is stuck in a coiled spring formation and looks to be storing power for a breakout move up or down. The sensible trader should be in cash now as he awaits the breakout move.