Showing posts with label Educational. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Educational. Show all posts

Friday, 28 October 2011

Trading United Steel (X) using Multiple Time Frames

Dear Readers, United Steel looks like the next big cap stock to make a huge move. All the 'stars and planets' (multiple time frames) are now in line for a huge move as the weekly traders stepped into gear. Let's take a look at the multiple time frames.

United Steel (X) Weekly


United Steel (X) Daily Chart - Looking at the market sentiment, what are the odds of X breaking higher above its 50day MA? Very high chance.




United Steel (X) 60-min Chart - Price action resting after breaking out of its 60-min trading range over a period of 3 weeks. A powerful move is imminent. A breakout buy!


United Steel (X) 15-min Chart - Lastly, if you are trading a smaller time frame such as the 15-min chart and your chart is showing you an enormous gain; hold on to your stock. Reason: A higher time frame trader might be coming in to push the prices even higher. Just look at all the above higher time frames which I have posted above and you'll understand.
 

Trade them well ! Have a great weekend.



Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Art of Trading - Flexibility, Discipline & Patience

Trading is very dynamic. Traders who adopt a wishy-washy mindset are those who who really excel and stay in the game. Nothing is cast in stone in the world of trading and perhaps this is one of the reasons why many people do not embrace the finer art of technical analysis and trading. They give up practicing technical analysis or even trading altogether after setbacks. Many are too fixated in their long or short bias that they forget the most important goal of all; which is as traders, they are supposed to follow the way of the market instead of arguing with the tape / charts !!

Adopting a strict discipline mentally will allow a trader to overcome his fear of the market taking away his paper profit by adhering to his sell rules as dictated by his trading system or style. Jumping at early profits would only compromise the "letting your profits run" rule. It takes discipline to sit on your hands and wait for the desired move to end before closing your trade. The right patience is also required to make the big money as the market takes its time to play out the move. More often that not, we may be right in our interpretation of the movement of stocks but we beat ourselves by failing to sit tight. This was rightly pointed out by Jesse Livermore in one of his many famous quotes: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

Whether you like it or not, there will be times whereby your favourite trading setups will fail. One should be flexible enough to change course or even scratch (fold) your trade if your stock is not acting the way you think it should be. Staying in cash and doing nothing at all while waiting patiently for your setups is also a strategy which many of us failed to fully appreciate. It is only after one experience the painful losses when market whipsaw that one will learn to appreciate the rationale behind this strategy.

Without a doubt, trading is one of the most challenging game ever. Let's embrace uncertainly, fear and greed. Never give up.

Monday, 16 May 2011

With reference to my earlier two posts on Wyckoff's method of technical analysis on BAC, i realised that on hindsight, the level indicated on the chart below could not be the "last point of support" as the stock price was supposed to bounce off the level instead of hugging it. I have indicated the correct LPS on the chart as well for comparison..



Reference to earlier posts:

Wyckoff Method of Technical Anaylsis - BAC


Wyckoff Method of Technical Anaylsis - BAC (part 2)


Sunday, 1 May 2011

Price action to look out for at major support for long trades

Typically, if you are looking to go long and enter a trade for your stock at its major support (50day MA or 200day MA), you would want to see the stock bouncing off the support rather than the price action hugging the support line. If you are looking to act on such setups and the price action is not acting right, you might want to snap a mental time stop on your trade or just scratch the trade and move on. Remember, we can always put a trade back on but losses are hard to make up.

 An example of a trade not acting right at significant moving average:



 Example of a stock acting right at significant moving average:


Wednesday, 27 April 2011

Adopting A Flexible Mindset - A Tale of 2 Traders

Adopting a flexible mindset is absolutely crucial in our learning journey as traders. Traders who are "wishy-washy" tends to better than traders who are too rigid and fixated towards their trades.

Let's do a case study and go back to Oct 2010 where price action for BAC was at the $13 support level. Here's the story: Trader A and B both planned to initiate a long position at the $13 level as the general market condition was good. The Dow Jones index was also rising. Thinking that the $13 support would hold, Trader A initiated a long trade in BAC at $13. Lo and behold, BAC began to break through the $13 support. Trader A was so fixated in his thoughts on his long trade and refused to believe the fact that he was wrong and began to average down instead of cutting his losses at his pre-determined stop loss price of $12.95.

On the contrary, Trader B was flexible in his thoughts and had adopted a "I am going to be wrong most of the time" mentality and had a plan in place for the different possible scenarios. Instead of being over fixated on his long bias when the market broke through $12.95 taking out his stops, he understood that the market was telling him that he was on the wrong side of the trade and Trader B immediately changed sides and started shorting BAC as the stock price eventually went down to as low as $12.15.



Trader A fought the market all the way down and refuse to believe that he was wrong while Trader B embraced uncertainly and risk by adopting a flexible mindset which allowed him to turn a losing trade into a totally new market opportunity/trade and most importantly, ended up in the green. I am sure many of us here have faced such situations before. Instead of moaning about such trades, we might as well be mentally prepared for the different scenarios which could possibly take place before placing our trades and also respecting what the market is trying to tell us instead of fighting the tape.

Remember my friends, the market is never wrong!




Monday, 25 April 2011

Wyckoff Method of Technical Analysis - BAC (Part 2)

Dear Readers, do you still remember this earlier post on "Wyckoff method of technical analysis on BAC" ?

It suddenly dawned on me that BAC is back at its original "Last Point of Support" on its daily charts. I have many friends who are interested in buying BAC for the long term and this could be a good entry with stop loss, of course. However, it shoud also be very interesting to see how would BAC react at its near term resistance of $12.80.

Last Point of Support (LPS): The ending point of a reaction or pullback where support was met, also known as a retest of support where long position can be initiated or to add to profitable ones.


Who is Wyckoff and what is his method of technical analysis?
Richard Wyckoff, one of the great traders in his days, identified trading ranges as places whereby accumulation and distribution develops to build a cause for the subsequent change of trend in movement of price actions. Trading range are places whereby there are equilibrium between supply and demand and if judged correctly, would allow traders to profit form the magnitude of the move within and out of trading ranges.

Monday, 18 April 2011

The Importance of Cutting Loss


Cutting loss is an essential risk management tool for our long term health as traders. If you lose your capital in the markets, you are as helpless as a soldier without any fire power (bullets) in the middle of a war.

By not taking the loss when it is small, we are allowing the market to dictate our emotions and more often than not, we’ll lose control of the situation when the losses against us are too much to bear. And at that moment after you decide to sell and take your huge loss, you end up selling your stock right at the bottom as the stock price rebound.

You know that you are losing control of the situation when you find yourself hoping that the market would reverse direction and move higher back to your original purchase price. This is what they call “hopium” for traders. You know you are on “hopium” when your losses are too huge for you to cut. At that moment, a trader can only hope that he could turn back the clock and had taken his losses when it is still small. Never lose control of the situation.

Buying insurance
Many a times, after we cut our losses, the stock price would tend to bounce back after the market makers shake out the sellers of the stock. Take this as your insurance fees. If you lose $200 and the price comes back up, you can always re-purchase your stock at a higher price. This $200 would serve as your insurance fees. So, what if you do not like to place stop loss orders and dislike “paying” for this type of insurance?

Scenario: Trader A placed his trade with a stop loss of $200 while Trader B chose to trade without a stop loss. The stock was then hit by a wave of selling and the price moved lower through Trader A’s pre-designated stop loss price and Trader A was promptly stopped out for a loss of $200. What about Trader B? He chose not to pay for insurance and could only watch as his stock price moved lower as the stock broke through a series of support level and he is now $2000 in the red instead of the small loss of $200 which Trader A took for this trade. Trader A in the meantime after getting stopped out even turned bearish and shorted the stock on the way down while Trader B could only lick his wound and watch as his capital is stuck in the stock. In extreme cases, it might take the stock years to come back up to its original high.

Of course, one might argue that the stock market has the tendency to go up instead of down over time. However I would like to point out that it is the stock market index that is going up over time. Weak companies in the index would be replaced with companies which are healthy and robust. One extreme case was Enron in 2001 when its share price plunged from $80 in January 2001 to less than $1 in late December 2001. Enron was then part of the S&P 500 index and was eventually declared bankrupt. It was duly replaced by another healthier company. And yes, you guessed it, the S&P 500 then climber higher 3 years later.



Monday, 11 April 2011

Trade what you see

Trade what you see. All traders are always encouraged to adhere to this golden liner. But why is it so difficult to execute? Human beings are governed by our values and beliefs in society and we are subjected to prejudices and bias. It works the same ways in trading when traders attempt to interpret price actions.

Trading is very subjective. A trader with bearish bias would see a chart differently from that of a bullish trader. Let's take a lot at two examples:

SOL (daily chart):



BAC (weekly chart): Same candlestick different interpretation.



Recommendation: The sensible and savvy trader should be on the sidelines in cash position as the stock can go either way. Careful observation of the general market trend should also be adhered to as well. He should be trading the breakout either upwards or downwards. Well... trade what you see but its really easier said than done. Discipline, patience and risk management are the 3 most important traits which we should strive to achieve.


Have a great day ahead!

Sunday, 10 April 2011

Wyckoff Method of Technical Analysis - BAC

Richard Wyckoff, one of the great traders in his days, identified trading ranges as places whereby accumulation and distribution develops to build a cause for the subsequent change of trend in movement of price actions. Trading range are places whereby there are equilibrium between supply and demand and if judged correctly, would allow traders to profit form the magnitude of the move within and out of trading ranges. Wyckoff and Jesse Livermore belong to the same era on Wall Street history but Livermore was primarily a trend follower while Wyckoff was a range trader

I came to know of Wyckoff's method of technical analysis when I came across "The Three Skills of Top Trading" by Hank Pruden whereby the Wyckoff schematics of accumulation and distribution were covered extensively by the author. Fantastic read! This book is a must read !

Here i will attempt to explain the anatomy of the trade for Bank of America (BAC) using Wyckoff's trading method.


 Abbreviations used:

Selling Climax (SC): the point at which widening spread and selling pressure (high volume) usually climaxes and panicky selling by public is absorbed by professional interest at prices near bottom.

Automatic Rally (AR): Relief rally where short-covering can easily cost prices to shoot up

Secondary Test (ST): A retest of the area of selling climax to test the supply and demand at these levels. For a bottom to be found, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as market approaches support.

Sign of Strength (SOS): Advance on high volume and price spread

Last Point of Support (LPS): The ending point of a reaction or pullback where support was met, also known as a retest of support where long position can be initiated or to add to profitable ones.


Have a good weekend!


Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Anatomy of a Short Sale

I had just completed reading William O'Neil's book- "How to make money selling stocks short". Its a wonderfully written book whereby the author explained the psychology behind making short selling sales.

In the book, O'Neill explained and showed readers the correct point of sale for short selling and explained that what is obvious in the stock market often does not work. For example, the initial break-down of stocks on high volume might not be the best instances to initiate your short-selling positions. The area which all short-sellers congregate would created a floor for the stocks and would help bounce up the prices instead. The secret is to wait for the first wave of early shorts to be run in (stopped out) and to wait for the bull bargain hunters to step in before re-initiating the short selling positions.

I searched the Internet and found that someone had actually did up a slide of an anatomy of short selling which is kind of the same as what was found in William O'Neill's book. This model (click on chart to enlarge) would be extremely useful for all of us. Here you go:


Perhaps you should use this model to look up stocks that are having traits which are exhibiting this type of "behaviours".

What to do when your stocks are not reacting as you think it should be?

I am sure many of us here had experienced times whereby your trades did not react accordingly to what you expect them to do. For example, the short selling trades which you expect to go down did not move down and the long trades which you made do not react strongly as what you would expect it to.

What can you as a trader do then? Listed below are two responses which i think is viable to take.

- Cut away your positions immediately without it even touching your stops.

- If you think that you have trouble cutting away all your positions in one go, i will recommend that you reduce your positions proportionally. For example; reduce 1/3 of position first. Take this first step and you will find that you will be able to subsequently reduce all your positions. Try it out the next time your trades do not react the way you expect them to.

You'll be surprised. Trust me.

Sunday, 27 March 2011

Cutting losses - Important Risk Management Tool

As stock traders, we have to always remember and keep in mind that trading common stocks are speculative and substantial risks are involved at any one time. We have to be willing to take many small losses to avoid the possibility of sustaining bigger losses and thus losing our entire stake.

Insurance premium

Many people i know are not willing to take losses as they are often stopped out before their stocks took off to greater highs. They are conditioned into thinking that taking losses would prevent them from making big bucks. However, the opposite is the truth. Consider taking small losses as your fire insurance premium against potential huge irreversible catastrophic losses. As the famous stock operator, Bernard Baruch always said:

"If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right three or four times out of ten should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly where he has been wrong."

Think about it, my friends.

Saturday, 19 March 2011

Famous quote by Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was one of the greatest trader ever lived in Wall Street history. His teachings are valid till even now. Today we take a look at one of his famous quotes.

Jesse Livermore was primarily a trend trader. A trend trader allows the stock price to fluctuate while the stock price makes its way up or down the intended trend. Trend traders are not able to catch the top 20% or bottom 20% of the stock price but only the meat of the move. This trading style also requires patience and excellent emotional control.

Livermore’s biography was captured in Edwin Lefèvre’s book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. This book was first published in 1923 and is still a hot seller on our bookstores in our era. It is a "must have" book for all aspiring traders. My mentor in stock trading gave me his copy of the book a few years back.

Well, as Livermore said: "Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes."



            There is this very famous liner by Livermore which has a huge impact on me:

            It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."

            Of course, now is not the time to be a bull for me as my personal interpretation of the charts is that we are currently at the start of a downtrend. I am bearish on the market. Nonetheless, this liner can also be applied to short-selling trades as well.

            Here are the extracts from Edwin Lefèvre’s book: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

"In Fullerton’s there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips that is, he never asked the talkers what they’d heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn’t donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.
The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap’s answer was always the same.
The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: “What do you think I ought to do?”

Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull market!”

Time and again I heard him say, “Well, this is a bull market, you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning. One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk.

Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning’s story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”
Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.
“Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!” said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of
Elmer to think of the old chap. “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man.

Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary’s face Elmer went on: “I have just sold every share I owned!”

From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares. But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, “No! No! I can’t do that!”
“What?” yelled Elmer
“I simply can’t!” said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.
“Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”
“You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But ”
“Hold on! Let me talk! And didn’t that stock go op seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”
“It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”

“You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.
“No, I couldn’t.”
“Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer.
“Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

“That’s all right,” said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”

“My dear boy,” said old Partridge, in great distress “my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?
Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get
sympathy: “Can you beat it?” he asked me in a stage whisper. “I ask you!” I didn’t say anything. So he went on: “I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He’s got seven points’ profit and I advise him to get out and buy ‘em back on the reaction that’s overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He  says that if he sells he’ll lose his job. What do you know about that?”

“I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn’t say I’d lose my job,” cut in old Turkey. “I said I’d lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.” And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. 

I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do.

That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight."





Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Which stage is your stock at now?

In each time frame (5min, 15min, 30min, 1hr, daily or weekly chart), the stock will be in one of the following 4 stages:

Stage 1 (Accumulation phase) : Stocks is under accumulation by the big players and fund managers who are able to move the market with their millions/billions.

Stage 2 (Mark-up phase) : Stocks prices are being pushed up as buyers comes in to support the prices and are willing to pay higher prices for the stock.

Stage 3 (Distribution phase) : Latecomers rush in to buy the stock at these high prices while traders who had bought earlier are not selling their stocks to the latecomers.

Stage 4 (Mark-down phase) : There are no more buyers after the latecomers arrived at the distribution stage and all that are left are all sellers as the stock price begins its decline. The whole cycle then repeats itself again from stage 1.

 Now Let's take a look at Las Vagas Sands daily chart:




If we compare the above chart with the Dow Jones Index (see chart below). Which stage do you think we are at now?